Saturday, October 06, 2012

EU DEBT CRISIS: WHO’S NEXT?

Ireland’s Rescue has Failed to Stem off Market Tensions from Euro Zone. B&E talks to Experts, Including the European Central Bank, to Analyse who will be the next Victim of Sovereign Debt Crisis. 

While Portugal is likely to be forced to go for a bailout, Spain still stands a fighting chance of avoiding the same fate, given that its current trends in bond yields come to an end soon. But then, things don’t look good here too. Ten-year bond yields on Spain have already jumped above 5.5% and are at the record high of 260 basis points just behind spreads of 400 basis points for Portuguese debt, 620 for Ireland, and 890 for Greece. What’s more? Spain’s gross debt will be over 60% of GDP this year (at 63.5% of GDP), which is the EU threshold under the Stability and Debt Growth Pact. In fact, with unemployment rate hovering over 20% and the budget deficit at 11.2%, possibility of Spain’s being the next epicenter can’t be undermined, particularly if Portugal asks for a bailout.

This is surely a big concern for European policymakers as it not only poses a threat of a much deeper recession than one recently experienced (when euro zone total output fell more than 5% peak to trough), but also raises questions about the survival of the single currency area. Raison d’être: The fourth largest economy in the euro zone would require more than $535 billion in bailout (way above the bailout packages of Greece, Ireland and Portugal put together) to see it through the next few years. This eats up more than half of the $1 trillion combined EU-IMF rescue fund, with only a little left over after the other three take their share. Not to say what will happen if another nation joins the beleaguered bandwagon (which has the highest probability). This certainly calls for an immediate action, both by the respective national governments as well as EU. Though both the nations have decided to cut upon their spending to bring down spiralling budget deficits (while Spain plans to cut its budget deficit to 9.3% of GDP this year from 11.2% in 2009, Portugal plans to slash it to 7.3% of GDP, from 9.4% in 2009), it will take them years before that actually happens (interestingly, EU’s threshold limit for fiscal deficits is 3%). Thus, as of now, a bailout seems to be the only possible answer to their miseries.

But then, bailouts too, in any case, are not the permanent solution since they only kick the ball down the road. The only stable remedy to Euro zone’s fiscal woes is a structural reform with national governments showing steadfast commitment to reducing budget deficits. It’s not as if the ECB doesn’t realise the magnitude of the fiscal troubles in Euro zone. In fact, Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB, tells in a communiqué to B&E, “I would say that, for all countries, it is extremely important to substantiate the decisions that would allow the goals for fiscal deficit next year, i.e. 2011, to be attained, also taking into account what is going on this year, of course. But I am concentrating on next year. This is the very, very firm message that we have for all countries, including Portugal and Spain.”

No doubt, EU has proposed the swift implementation of comprehensive consolidation plans, focusing on the expenditure side and combined with structural reforms, which will strengthen public confidence in the capacity of governments to regain sustainability of public finances, reduce risk premia in interest rates and thus support sustainable growth over the medium term, but then isn’t EU a little late in proposing these measures? Well, we would say … S#!t happens, when PIGS come out in the open!


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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