Thursday, November 06, 2008

Beyond everyone’s forecast, European economies are now the biggest sufferers of the US subprime crisis

What began as a problem in a single sector, in a single economy (US housing market) has today metastasized into severe dislocations in broader credit and funding market. The crisis has moved beyond the US and subprime market to prime real estates markets, consumer credits and corporate credit markets. Global Financial Stability MapAmid such a milieu the spill over of the man made crisis in the global financial market is being governed by the trio comprising – weakening balance sheet, continuing de-leveraging process and the burgeoning challenges of the macroeconomic environment. Says Tine Olsen, Economist, Moody’s Economy, “A year after the subprime shock, the global economy is still suffering, and the end of the credit crisis is nowhere in sight.”
In fact a year after the genesis of the subprime shock, similar features are beginning to emerge in Europe. Be it losses in terms of subprime, ABS (asset backed securities), ABS CDOs (credit default obligation) or Conduits/SIV (special investment vehicle), Europe is only next to US. Signs of a downturn are becoming all the more evident in European housing market. Market prices of property derivatives today are suggestive of an outright home price decline in the UK with a time lag of around two years (wrt US). At a time when the lenders are tightening standards, many borrowers of fixed rates in UK are set to witness a rate increase of 100 to 200 basis points (bps). This will in all certainty add to yet another source of stress in the already stressed market. It is but obvious that with an increased stress (result of the spill over) write offs and repossessions are set to increase....Continue

Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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